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Section 9 · Lesson 9.5

Stationary Distributions

Long-run behavior of Markov chains and how to compute it.

A distribution π\pi is stationary for a transition matrix PP if the chain doesn't change its distribution after one step:

π=πP\pi = \pi P

(treating π\pi as a row vector). Once the chain's distribution is π\pi, it stays π\pi forever.

For a finite irreducible aperiodic chain, the stationary distribution exists, is unique, and equals the long-run fraction of time spent in each state. It's also the limit of π0Pn\pi_0 P^n as nn \to \infty, regardless of where you started.

Computing π\pi is a linear algebra problem: solve πP=π\pi P = \pi subject to iπi=1\sum_i \pi_i = 1 and πi0\pi_i \ge 0. Equivalently, find the left eigenvector of PP with eigenvalue 11, then normalize.

Stationary distributions show up everywhere — equilibrium portfolio weights under rebalancing, long-run market share in a competitive game, the score distribution PageRank assigns to web pages.