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Section 15 · Lesson 15.1

Stationarity and Autocorrelation

When statistical properties hold across time, and when they don't.

A time series is stationary if its statistical properties don't change over time. Strict stationarity requires the full joint distribution to be time-invariant; weak (covariance) stationarity requires constant mean, constant variance, and an autocovariance that depends only on the lag kk:

γ(k)=Cov(Xt,Xt+k)\gamma(k) = \mathrm{Cov}(X_t, X_{t+k})

Most practical work uses weak stationarity. The autocorrelation function (ACF) ρ(k)=γ(k)/γ(0)\rho(k) = \gamma(k)/\gamma(0) summarizes how observations at different lags relate.

Most financial price series are non-stationary — they drift and have time-varying volatility. Returns are usually closer to stationary, which is why we model returns rather than levels. Tests like the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) check for unit roots that signal non-stationarity.